Beyond 2030, our research suggests that the declining birth rate will further tighten the availability of AI talent, as fewer students will be entering university programs. However, local and overseas universities and existing top-tier talent are estimated to supply only about two million (or one-third) of the AI talent needed by 2030, resulting in a shortage of four million people for AI roles (Exhibit 1). (See sidebar, “About the research,” for details on our research methods.) 2 Estimation is based on the following research: Kai Shen, Xiaoxiao Tong, Ting Wu, and Fangning Zhang, “ The next frontier for AI in China could add $600 billion to its economy,” McKinsey, J“ Notes from the AI frontier: Applications and value of deep learning,” McKinsey Global Institute, Apand National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2021. By 2030, demand in China for individuals skilled in building AI products will grow sixfold from current levels (from one million people to six million) as companies race to unlock the more than $1 trillion in potential value AI can deliver in China. Our latest research suggests it’s about to get harder, even with recent market contractions. On the supply side, we considered the estimated number of STEM graduates from domestic universities and those from foreign universities who prefer to work in China, along with the existing number of top-tier tech talent.
To estimate talent demand, we considered both the economic impact of AI in key sectors (consumer, finance, manufacturing, enterprise services, automotive, transportation and logistics, and healthcare and life sciences) and modeled productivity per employee in each sector. We also analyzed global and local reports, use cases, and hiring databases to understand the demand for AI talent in China, the challenges companies face in addressing talent gaps, and the actions they’ve taken to close these gaps. We conducted surveys and interviews with 102 leading companies in China that have adopted AI in at least one function.
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